The question of whether and when 'peak oil' output will be reach is a key debate for our time.   It has seemed as though the debate was polarised between ex-oil company geologists (proponents of the idea that global oil output will shortly peak before an inexorable decline) and the oil industry plus the economists (both optimistic about the prospects for future production).

It was therefore interesting to read in the Financial Times of 16 February that Christophe de Margerie, CEO of Total, the French oil and gas company, predicts that the world will never be able to produce more than 89m barrels of oil per day (current output 82mbpd according to the BP Statistical Review 2008).

Constrained output plus growing demand for oil by the global transport sector points to an upward price trajectory, notwithstanding recent yo-yoing of oil prices.   Good for investment in low-carbon technologies.